US Fed's independence shaken, US dollar collapses to two-year low, boosting copper prices [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

    SMM News on June 27: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,871.5/mt, fluctuated downward to a low of $9,833.5/mt, then rose steadily, reaching a high of $9,913.5/mt at the end of the session, and finally closed at $9,896/mt, up 1.74%. Trading volume reached 31,408 lots, and open interest stood at 287,624 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 79,360 yuan/mt, reached a high of 79,900 yuan/mt, and a low of 79,320 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed at 79,790 yuan/mt, up 1.33%. Trading volume was 62,102 lots, and open interest was 204,914 lots. Overall, it showed a trend of fluctuating upward first and then slightly fluctuating. On the macro side, media reports said that Trump was considering announcing Powell's successor as early as September. Concerns about the future independence of the US Fed have eroded confidence in the soundness of US monetary policy. The market expects that the US Fed may cut interest rates more than expected. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since early 2022, driving up copper prices. Meanwhile, the White House said it had no plans to extend the tariff suspension period beyond July 9, and that any changes would be decided by the President. Concerns about future tariffs may also support copper prices. On the fundamental side, smelters have increased export efforts, and domestic copper supply in many regions is tight. At the same time, as the semi-annual settlement approaches, the availability of spot cargo has tightened. Overall, the US dollar index continued to weaken, hitting a new low since 2022. It is expected that copper prices will remain high today, with the bottom supported.